INDIANAPOLIS — Areas on interest in the Indianapolis Colts’ Sunday meeting with the Texans in Houston’s NRG Stadium:
Kickoff: 1 p.m.
Broadcast: CBS4.
Spread: Texans by 4½.
History lesson, Part I: The Colts lead the overall series by a wide margin — 33-12-1 — but the advantage recently has tipped in the direction of Houston. The Texans have won three of the last four. Oddly, the exception was a 31-20 Colts’ win in week 2 last season in Houston. Rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson bedazzled the Texans’ defense with two rushing TDs in the game’s first six-plus minutes before suffering a concussion when safety M.J. Stewart whacked him as he was crossing the goal line on the second TD.
The game featured Richardson, 21 and the No. 4 overall pick in the draft, versus quarterback C.J. Stroud, 22 and the No. 2 overall pick. It represented the youngest QB matchup in NFL history.
By the way, Richardson, now a grizzled 22, still is the league’s youngest QB.
History lesson, Part II: Through the first seven weeks of the NFL season, 58 games have been decided by seven points or fewer. Per the NFL, that’s the most in league history. Seven teams have had five games decided by seven points or fewer, and the Colts top the list as the only team with all seven. In fact, they’ve all been decided by 6 or less.
The Colts are one of four teams to have each of their first seven games decided by 7 points or fewer since 2000. The select group includes the ’19 Colts, ’16 Detroit Lions and ’08 Jacksonville Jaguars.
More from Richardson: Everyone should understand and accept the fact we’re in the midst of Richardson’s early development. That means highs and lows. But completing 10 passes in a game — twice in five weeks, for crying out loud — isn’t sustainable. Richardson’s league-low completion percentage has dipped 48.5. We don’t expect him to visit the 60% neighborhood very often, but he’s been at 50% or fewer in four of his five starts. The only exception was when he completed 3-of-4 before suffering the oblique injury in the first quarter against the Steelers.
Richardson’s presence and threat in the run game is huge. He was the Colts’ leading rusher against the Dolphins, matching a career-high with 56 yards on 14 carries. That threat should increase with the return of running back Jonathan Taylor.
But there always are going to be a handful of pivotal plays Richardson must make in the pass game.
Protect the QB: Getting more from Richardson in the pass game won’t be easy Sunday. The Texans possess a defense ranked No. 2 overall (277.0 yards per game) and No. 4 against the pass (167.7). Opposing quarterbacks are completing just 56.3% of their passes and have suffered seven interceptions with a 84.8 passer rating.
The Texans rank fourth with 22 sacks, and they come in waves. On the season, Will Anderson Jr. has 6.5, Danielle Hunter 3.5, Tim Settle Jr. 3, Mario Edwards Jr. 2 and Derek Barnett 2. They also should receive a boost from defensive end Denico Autry, who returned last week after missing the first six games while serving a PED suspension.
In week 1, the Colts’ pass protection allowed two sacks and eight other QB hits. It has yielded just 10 sacks, second-fewest in the league. Some of that can be attributed to Richardson using his 6-foot-4, 250-pound frame to occasionally shrug off would-be sacks.
Lean on JT: Taylor is back after missing the past three games with a sprained right ankle. It’s impossible to overstate his importance to the offense. One of the ways to add pop and efficiency to the pass game is to give Richardson balance with a legit run game. Houston is allowing 109.3 yards per game (8th), but 4.5 per attempt (15th).
Taylor generally has had success against the Texans. Four of his top 10 career rushing games have come against Houston. But the Texans didn’t let him get going in week 1: 48 yards and one TD on 16 carries. Richardson was the leading rusher with 56 yards on six attempts.
The numbers speak volumes. With Taylor in the backfield, the run game averages 133.4 yards per game and 4.7 per attempt. Without him, the averages are 102.8 and 3.99, respectively.
Colts coach Shane Steichen might not place an inordinate load on Taylor in his first game back, and that will require Tyler Goodson and Trey Sermon to be effective when Taylor’s on the sideline.
Stroud or Mixon?: Rematches are all about making the necessary adjustments. In Round 1, defensive coordinator Gus Bradley’s scheme was all about not allowing Stroud to go off and limit the over-the-top plays in the pass game. Stroud averaged an acceptable 6.8 yards per attempt, but still finished with 234 yards and two TDs. He had a 55-yard completion to Nico Collins and a 23-yarder to Tank Dell.
That might have been sustainable, except the pass-centric approach allowed the Texans to pile up 213 rushing yards, including 159 on 30 carries by Joe Mixon. And that was a major factor in Houston dominating time of possession (40:00-20:00) and plays (76-43).
Dealing with the pass game will benefit from the absence of Collins, who’ll miss a third straight game with a hamstring injury. He’s had three consecutive 100-plus-yard games against the Colts, including 117 on six catches in week 1. But Stroud’s targets still include Stefon Diggs, Dell and tight end Dalton Schultz.
The Colts get a boost from the return of defensive tackle DeForest Buckner. He’ll bolster work against the run and always is an integral part of the pass rush. As good as he is, Stroud is gettable. He’s been sacked 20 times — tied-3rd most in the league — and gone down at least three times in four games. The Colts got to him for 4 sacks and six hits in the first meeting.
In last week’s loss at Green Bay, Stroud was sacked four times and knocked down seven on seven occasions. He endured one of the worst games of his young career: 10-of-21, 86 yards, a 58.8 rating.
Containing Mixon is a must, but so is pressuring Stroud with Buckner, rookie Laiatu Latu, pass rusher Kwity Paye and others.
And the winner is: Texans 30, Colts 17. This is another one where our gut says the Colts find a way. But our head wins the internal debate. Indy’s defense has been solid the past two weeks against quarterbacks like Will Levis and Tyler Huntley/Tim Boyle. Stroud and the Texans represent a much more difficult challenge. And we still don’t trust Richardson.
You can follow Mike Chappell on Twitter at @mchappell51.
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