INDIANAPOLIS — When the FBI released reported 2023 crime statistics on Tuesday, the numbers matched Indy police figures which have recently been on the decline.
The FBI found, when compared to 2022, national crime figures were down 3%, with murder leading the way at an 11.6% decrease.
The revised rape category, subject to changes in definition over the past several years, was off 9.4% and aggravated assault slumped 2.8%.
IMPD is reporting similar crime decreases.
At this time last year, IMPD had investigated 165 homicides.
This year that number stands at 153.
Non-fatal shooting statistics show that as of this morning, there had been 359 NFS incidents with 425 victims.
The high point for those numbers was 2021 when, on this date, there were 519 NFS incidents wounding 588 victims.
Those IMPD statistics may reflect enhanced investigations by gun crime detectives which focus on removing the violent trigger pullers from city streets.
One national expert told Fox 59 News that the key to deciphering the FBI numbers is to understand that not all crimes are being reported to police and not all police agencies are reporting their figures to the Bureau.
“In 2022, for example, 31% of police departments didn’t report any crime data to the FBI. Another 24% only partially reported data,” said John Lott, President of the Crime Prevention Research Center. “You had less than half of all police departments reporting complete data.”
A couple of years back Indianapolis’ crime statistics were not represented in the annual FBI report because IMPD’s data system did not interface with that of Indiana State Police which was designated as the reporting agency for the state.
Lott also noted that a nationwide policing shortage has left departments short of officers and necessitated changes in the reporting of crime, often depending on victims to visit local precincts or agency headquarters or logging onto websites to file their information.
“If you make it more difficult, more time consuming, for people to go and report crimes now than it was a few years ago, you’re gonna have some people who are gonna say, ‘You know, not only is the arrest rate lower, but its taking a lot more time on my part and its just not worth it for me and go to report crimes,’” he said. ”Whether people report crimes to the police depends in part on whether they think the criminals are going to be caught and punished. We’ve had huge drops in arrest rates in large cities over the last few years. If you look at cities over a million in the five years before COVID, 44% of violent crimes resulted in arrests. It fell by 55%. It was down to 20%.”
Lott cited a 6.6% swing in corrected FBI data from 2022 that he said showed an actual increase in reported crime and figures from the Department of Justice’s Bureau of Justice Statistics, drawn from population surveys, that showed the 2023 rate of violent victimization nearly identical to the 2022 rate.
The researcher noted the divergence of the parallel data sets from the FBI and the BJS began in 2020.
Lott said there are other disparities in the way the FBI, citing local agency reports, account for homicides as opposed to the statistics collected by the Centers for Disease Control which relies on coroners and medical examiners for its data.
”Only about forty percent of violent crimes are reported to police,” said Lott. “Only about thirty percent of property crimes are reported to police and the rate at which people are reporting crimes has fallen over the last few years. As law enforcement has collapsed in many parts of the country, people just don’t see the benefit of going to take the time to go and report to police.”
IMPD is more than 300 officers short of its authorized workforce level.
The IMPD statistics, as reported to the FBI, show Indianapolis’ violent crime rate has dipped significantly lower than late 2019 levels, though there was a spike last summer.
Lott contends that some crimes, like vehicle and retail thefts, have risen either statistically as agencies have been plagued by stolen car reports led by the Kia hack popularized on YouTube or anecdotally as shoppers notice more locked product displays in stores to deter shoplifters.
”You may get robbed, but it’s not like an insurance company is going to reimburse you. With a car you have to go and put in a police report in order to be able to go to your insurance company to get your $20 or $25 or $30,000 car replacement there. In some sense we have a more accurate measure of motor vehicle thefts because they are reported to police at a much higher rate than other types of crimes are,” he said. ”Everything in the store is now behind plexiglass. That wasn’t true a few years ago. If you want to go and buy a product in those stores you have to wait for a salesperson to come over, unlock the plexiglass and then stand next to you as you read the packages and try to decide what to buy.”
From 2022 to 2023, IMPD reported to the FBI its motor vehicle theft investigations skyrocketed from 434 to 749.
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