INDIANAPOLIS – Areas of interest in the Indianapolis Colts’ Saturday meeting with the Pittsburgh Steelers at Lucas Oil Stadium.
*Kickoff: 4:30 p.m.
*Broadcast: CBS4.
*Spread: Colts by 1½.
*History lesson, Part I: It’s Steelers Week, so your angst is understandable. And well founded. The Colts are 6-26 all-time against Pittsburgh in a series that has frequented six venues: 0-4 at Lucas Oil Stadium, 2-2 in the RCA Dome/Hoosier Dome, 1-5 at Heinz Field, 0-11 at Three Rivers Stadium, 2-4 at Baltimore’s Memorial Stadium, 1-0 at Pitt.
The Steelers have won eight straight and 18 of 21 since the Colts’ relocation in 1984. The Colts actually posted a 17-16 win in their first season in Indy on Ray Butler’s 54-yard touchdown on a pass that was deflected twice by teammate Bernard Henry with less than 1 minute remaining. Pittsburgh had its Immaculate Reception. Coach Frank Kush dubbed Butler’s TD the Serendipity Play.
The Steelers have won their last three visits to Indy, including 24-17 in week 12 last season.
The Colts’ last win in the series: 24-20 in 2008 in Pittsburgh.
Their last home win over the Steelers: 26-7 in ’05. We won’t further spoil your day by reminding you what occurred in the rematch in the playoffs.
*History lesson, Part II: Since 1984, only QBs wearing No. 18 have led the Colts to wins over the Steelers. Peyton Manning (twice) and Mike Pagel (in ’84).
*History lesson, Part III: Michael Pittman Jr. is knocking on a couple of unique doors. He enters Saturday with 95 catches and 984 yards, and notched his only 1,000-yard season in 2021. He can join Marvin Harrison (eight), Reggie Wayne (eight) and T.Y. Hilton (five) as the only Colts with multiple 1,000-yard seasons.
Pittman also can join Harrison, Wayne and Dallas Clark as the only players in team history with at least 100 receptions. He finished with a career-high 99 last season. He’s on pace for 124 catches, which would trail only Harrison’s 143 in team history.
One more. Pittman has matched Harrison’s team record with at least eight receptions in six consecutive games. That’s tied for the third-longest streak in NFL history. If Pittman is able to pile up another eight-catch game versus the Steelers, his seven-game streak would tie Anquan Boldin and Travis Kelce at seven. The league record is eight and last accomplished by Detroit’s Amon-Ra St. Brown in 2021-22.
*Playoff picture: This smacks of an elimination game. The 7-6 Steelers are the No. 6 seed in the AFC and the 7-6 Colts No. 7. Four other teams sit at 7-6, just behind 8-5 Cleveland in the wild-card scrum. The time is running out to overcome stumbles.
According to the New York Times’ playoff simulator, the Colts enter the game with a 44% chance of making the playoffs. It jumps to 62% with a win and drops to 20% with a loss.
*Limit Watt: This isn’t complicated. The Colts’ fortunes in their latest step toward earning a playoff berth are tied directly to their ability to limit the damage caused by T.J. Watt. The Steelers’ disruptive edge pass rusher is going to get his. He always does. Watt is second in the league with 14 sacks and has 27 quarterback hits, 14 tackles for loss and three forced fumbles.
“One of the premier players in this league. I don’t think I’m breaking any ground saying that,’’ offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter said.
Watt is the NFL’s 2021 Defensive Player of the Year and in the running to add a second to his resume. He’s one of those rare players – Myles Garrett, Micah Parsons come to mind – capable to making those three or four players that totally flip a game. Cincy’s Trey Hendrickson was that player last week.
Watt normally lines up on the left side of the Steelers’ formation, so rookie right tackle Blake Freeland will have his hands full. But Cooter and Shane Steichen will give him help.
Even so, Watt’s name probably will be announced a few times during the game. The key is to keep a sack from becoming a strip-sack-fumble.
Gardner Minshew II has fumbled 30 times in his 45-game career, including eight this season. He’s lost five fumbles so far this year.
It’s worth pointing out Watt isn’t a one-man wrecking crew. Alex Highsmith has 6 sacks, 16 quarterback hits and seven tackles for loss.
The Colts’ offense isn’t reliable enough to overcome a couple of shock plays that give Mitchell Trubisky a short field.
The Steelers are a plus-10 in turnover ratio, tied-No. 2, on the strength of 21 takeaways.
*Expose Trubisky: That brings us to Trubisky, who’ll make his second start since Kenny Pickett underwent ankle surgery. The No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 draft is with his third team in four years and is 31-25 as a starter with 12,367 yards, 71 touchdowns and an 85.7 passer rating in his career.
But shame on Gus Bradley’s defense if it allows Trubisky to carve it up the way Cincinnati’s Jake Browning did. The Steelers became the first team in NFL history with a winning record to lose consecutive home games to teams with 2-10 records (Arizona, New England). The offense averaged 290.5 points, 4.7 yards per play and scored three TDs on 24 drives against the Cardinals and Patriots.
Trubisky hasn’t represented much of an upgrade over Pickett. He’s averaged 5.9 yards per attempt and 9.3 yards per completion the last two games. The Steelers likely will lean heavily on their run game behind Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren – it had piled up at least 130 yards in five straight games before being limited to 82 by the Patriots – and George Pickens remains a big-play threat (15.1 yards per catch, three TDs).
Contain Harris and Warren, get after Trubisky with the pass rush and force him to make mistakes.
Through week 14, the Steelers’ scoring average (16.2) is the third-lowest by a team with a winning record in the last 40 seasons, per NFL Research. They’ve been held to 20 points or fewer nine times, including in four straight games.
*Return to form: The offense has lost its way because it’s lost its way on the ground. Over the last five games, the run game flexed with 155 yards against Tampa Bay but averaged 62.5 yards per game and 2.6 per attempt in the other four.
That’s been with and without Jonathan Taylor, who’ll miss a third straight game after undergoing surgery on his right thumb. So, buckle up, Zack Moss.
One of the most effective ways to diminish Watt’s threat is attack Pittsburgh with the run game and short/intermediate passing from Minshew. Getting behind the chains isn’t a good idea. The Colts’ 101 rushing yards the past two games is their lowest total since 2018. They’ve averaged 2.6 yards during that stretch with one 10-plus-yard rush, Moss’ 12-yarder against the Bengals.
Moss has been limited to 79 yards on 32 attempts (2.5) the past two games without Taylor.
Despite its long-standing reputation, Pittsburgh’s defense has had its issues. It ranks No. 21 in yards per game allowed (344.8), yards per play (5.3), rushing yards (117.9) and passing yards (226.9).
But the Steelers are no pushover. They’re No. 7 in scoring (19.2) and No. 8 in red-zone efficiency (48.7%).
It’s incumbent upon Steichen to get creative in the run game and Minshew to complement the run game with efficient passing to Pittman, Josh Downs and Alec Pierce.
*And the winner is: Colts 17, Steelers 13. Pittsburgh’s dominance in the series is a thing. And it’ll remain a talking point until the Colts do something about it. A team in the midst of a playoff push can’t afford to lose to Mitchell Trubisky. Period.
You can follow Mike Chappell on Twitter at @mchappell51.
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